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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence wins the prize. However, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

Yet the latest race is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers improving together. In an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against five other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still